On March 9, 2011, defendants stipulated “that the District currently provides
special education and related services under [the IDEA] . . . to less than 6% of its population of
children aged 3 through 5 years . . . .” Defs.’ Stipulation  1, Mar. 9, 2011.
Based on the most recent estimates available at the time of trial, the District of
Columbia still lags behind most other states in identifying and providing a FAPE to preschool-
age children. Dunst Direct Testimony [209-1] 9.
In the District of Columbia, large percentages of preschool-age children
experience many different risk factors associated with disabilities and significant developmental
delays, including, but not limited to, poverty, teenage pregnancy, HIV/AIDS, single-parent
households, economic hardship, and poor housing. Id. at 11–12. More children in the District of
Columbia experience multiple risk factors than in any other state. Id. at 12. Specifically, 59% of
children in the District experience three or more risk factors, while 6% experience eight or more
risk factors. Trial Transcript, Dunst Cross Testimony, 76:16–23, Apr. 6, 2011.
In its February 8, 2011 Family Care Manual, the staff of the District’s Early
Stages Center acknowledged that, in light of these risk factors, the District’s projected
identification rate (that is, the percentage of preschool-age children that the District of Columbia
is expected to identify and evaluate for Part B services) is about 12%. Family Care Manual
[271-21] 42, Pls.’ Ex. 152. In other words, it is likely that 12% of preschool-age children in the
District have developmental or physical disabilities that qualify them for Part B services. Dunst
Direct Testimony [209-1] 12; Trial Transcript, Dunst Cross Testimony, 79:13–19, Apr. 6, 2011.
The 12% figure is based on a comparison between the District of Columbia and two U.S. cities
(Atlanta and Detroit) with similar demographic predictors of disabilities. 30(b)(6) Beers Dep.,
61–62, Mar. 1, 2011. At trial, Dr. Dunst explained that “at least 10% but more likely 12%” of
preschool-age children in District are “potentially eligible” for Part B preschool education, with